Alberta Central, the central banking facility, service bureau and trade association for Alberta’s credit unions, has published a 2023 Economic Outlook written by Chief Economist Charles St-Arnaud.
In the Outlook, St-Arnaud provides insights at the global, national and provincial levels. After a rollercoaster 2022 that saw consumers being squeezed by the erosion in purchasing power from high inflation and fast-rising interest rates that resulted in a rapid increase in the cost to service debt, 2023 is looking more hopeful, even though most businesses agree we are likely headed into a recession. Alberta is poised to be more resilient in the face of recession worries than the rest of Canada and it is starting to look like inflation may now be easing.
Despite being a smaller positive than in previous booms, rising oil revenues remain a tailwind on the economy. Hence, it will support growth, income and the labour market, leading to stronger economic performance than in the rest of the country.
Although it may not prevent a recession in Alberta, it will mean that any contraction in economic activity is likely to be smaller in the province than elsewhere in the country.”