Today’s Labour Force Survey data points to a very gradual softening in Canada’s labour market, with job gains remaining below labour force growth, nudging the unemployment rate to 5.8%.
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Insolvencies resume their march higher
Insolvencies increased in October on a seasonally-adjusted basis, continuing their gradual rising trend, and remained close to their highest level since the start of the pandemic.
Rebound in retail sales due to better car inventories
Retail sales increased more than expected in September, and the preliminary estimate suggests that sales were also robust in October.
Inflation moderates with momentum in BoC’s core measures narrowly below 3%
Inflation decelerated to 3.1% in October, in line with expectations. The lower inflation rate is mainly the result of lower gasoline prices and slower price increases for food. However, service prices accelerated in October.
Will it be a hard landing or a soft landing? The labour market will decide
The Bank of Canada has tightened monetary policy meaningfully in its fight against inflation, raising the policy rate to 5.00%, well into restrictive territory. However, history has shown that it takes between 5 to 7 quarters on average between the moment monetary policy moves into restrictive territory and the start of a downturn, suggesting that the next six months may be the window to observe a more meaningful deterioration in the economy.
The housing market weakens further in October
Housing activity weakened in October for a fourth consecutive month, while national house prices fell for a second month. The decline in housing activity comes after the Bank of Canada increased its policy rate in June and July.