LEAD 2025
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The economy contracted in February and weakening momentum
Some temporary strength in retail sales, as consumers rush to spend before the tariffs impact
Bank of Canada: On hold, a highly uncertain outlook means no guidance
Inflation eased, but broadening inflationary pressures to push for a BoC pause
Insolvencies were on an easing trend in early 2025, the trade war is likely to put an end to that
The drop in employment in March could signal the start of the recession
Strong start to the year, but elevated uncertainty to temper growth
Retail sales remained above pre-GST holiday level, but the elevated uncertainty will be a major drag
Small business confidence is at its lowest on record
The end of the GST holiday is not the only reason inflation flared up in February
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